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The Recession Alarm: Is It Ringing?

Claudia Sahm's real-time recession indicator: when the 3-month unemployment rate rises 0.5pp above its 12-month low, a recession has almost always already started.

The Recession Alarm: Is It Ringing?
Source: FRED / Claudia Sahm · SAHMREALTIMEData through May 2026 · Updated Jul 14, 2026

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Chixan (2026). The Recession Alarm: Is It Ringing?. FRED / Claudia Sahm. https://chixan.com/charts/employment/us_sahm_rule/

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