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The Return of the Term Premium

Negative through the QE decade, positive again - long rates can rise without any change in Fed expectations.

The Return of the Term Premium
Source: FRB New York / ACM (FRED) · THREEFYTP10Data through June 2026 · Updated Jul 14, 2026

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Chixan (2026). The Return of the Term Premium. FRB New York / ACM (FRED). https://chixan.com/charts/rates/us_term_premium/

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