The recession bell: US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread
The 10y–2y Treasury spread with inversions shaded. Every US recession since the 1970s has been preceded by an inversion; not every inversion has been followed by one.
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED) · T10Y2YData through Jul 2026 · Updated Jul 10, 2026
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Source: U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED) · T10Y2YHover to read values · same data as the static chart · chixan.com
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Chixan (2026). The recession bell: US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED). https://chixan.com/charts/rates/us_yield_curve_10y2y/
