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Source: Federal Reserve (FRED) · T10Y3MData through July 2026 · Updated Jul 14, 2026 All rates →
The Fed's Favourite Recession Signal
The curve slope with the best forecasting record (Estrella-Mishkin) and the NY Fed model input.
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<iframe src="https://chixan.com/embed/rates/us_yield_curve_3m10y/" width="640" height="440" style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="The Fed's Favourite Recession Signal — Chixan"></iframe>Cite this chart
Chixan (2026). The Fed's Favourite Recession Signal. Federal Reserve (FRED). https://chixan.com/charts/rates/us_yield_curve_3m10y/
